THE TURKEY vs GREECE WAR SCENARIO

A HYPOTHETICAL AND STRICTLY SCIENTIFIC WAR SCENARIO

FOR THE USE OF MILITARY EXPERTS ONLY

Source: Kapatel.gr
By: Mihalis D. Rellos, President of “Achilles”.

Since 1974 there is a possibility of a Turkish attack against Greece or Cyprus (free southern part). Turkey has gathered a great number of tanks, airplanes, guns and soldiers. 40000 of them are in the occupied part of Cyprus since 1974 when Turkey invaded the island. But Greece has a very powerful army, as well. It includes a superior navy, a high trained air force and great advantages in the main frontier of the war, the Aegean Sea. The Turkish fleet must come out of the straits and it is vulnerable to naval attacks, air attacks and Exocet and Harpoon missiles attacks in a point of total sinking.

The Turkish Air Force has a relatively small advantage in numbers of F16s. But for a war over the Aegean Sea, this advantage will soon disappear. During January 1999 3 batteries of Patriot PAC-2 AA missiles arrive in Greek islands of the Aegean Sea as part of a greater sale of 1,2 billion dollars of new Patriot AA PAC-3 missiles arriving within the next two years. Another battery of S-300 AA missiles will soon arrive at eastern Crete, as well (the Cypriot missiles). This armament eliminates the Turkish advantage in the quantity of third generation airplanes and the Aegean Sea becomes a hostile and deadly area for the Turkish Air Force. Also, the Greek army has ordered 21 short range AA batteries of TOR and CROTALE missiles. This arsenal will be added to the existing Hawk, Osa and Nike-Hercules AA missiles.

The Aegean Sea (full of thousand Greek islands) is the ideal place for a total Greek success in naval war, since the Greek navy has a long tradition in defeating Turkish fleets since 1821!

Greece and Turkey have common borders in Evros river in Thrace. The eastern Thrace belongs to Turkey and the western Thrace to Greece. The Turkish eastern Thrace is a big valley straight from Evros river to Constantinopolis (Istanbul for the Turks). The western Greek Thrace is highland. So, a Turkish attack against western Thrace is almost impossible. If decided, it won’t be fruitful for the Turkish army.

There are many Greek islands near the Turkish shore of Asia Minor. There, a sudden Turkish attack is possible, but the results won’t be permanent. The total Greek imposition in the Aegean Sea for the above reasons (Patriot AA missiles – S300 AA missiles – experienced Greek Air Force – superior Greek Navy) will permit the liberation of every island.
The only Turkish military advantage lies in Cyprus (free Greek Cypriot side) which has a defense that may last at least for many weeks in every kind of attack. But the duration of the war in Cyprus will permit the total Greek victory in the Aegean Sea and the victorious fleet would easily liberate Cyprus and throw the Turks out of Cyprus.

One must take in account that the Turkish troops in northern part of Cyprus have no depth of defense. Even though they overcome the Cypriots in a 3 to 1 or 4 to 1 scale, they can not win without extended air and naval support from Turkey. Anyway, within the next months the Cypriot Republic announced that it will buy a sufficient number of short and middle range AA Russian missiles and tens of new T-80 Russian fourth generation tanks. These armaments will improve enormously the Greek Cypriot defense.
The air base of the national Guard in Pafos is ready and the naval station in Zygi will soon be completed in order to support Greek F16s, A7 Corsairs, modern Frigates, Destroyers, Gun Boats and Submarines.

Armenia, the northern neigbor of Turkey is already protected with Russian S300 AA missiles and Mig29s under Russian control. Syria has ordered S300 AA missiles, as well. The Kurdish rebels in Eastern Turkey threaten Turkey with a new round of internal war. It is quite possible that a long war between Turkey and Greece in any frontier will engage Armenia, Syria and the Kurds rebels against Turkey. Armenia, Syria and the Kurds believe that Turkey occupies Armenian, Syrian and Kurdish land and the only chance they have to regain these lands is a Turkish Greek war. This is the worse case scenario for Turkey (demolition of Turkey and division in many parts).

The worse case scenario for Greece is to stand all alone against Turkey. Even in this case the loss for Greece would be minimal. But Turkey, would have to stand great losses (naval prohibition of presence in the Aegean Sea and the Mediterranean Sea and the extension of Greek internal waters to 12 nautical miles, the European boycott for many decades, the destruction of its industrial areas in eastern Thrace and the shore of Asia Minor).

The Turkish economy suffers from high inflation of 90% and other severe economical problems. In the other hand, Greece has a strong and rich economy and it is a member of the European Union. The Greek ship oweners control the greater part of sea transport. The Greek Americans have a prosperous community of 4.000.000 people in the United States and can influence things in favor of Greece. Objectively, the economical comparison comes for Greece!

The conclusion of every scenario in Greek Turkish war is that Turkey will never try to attack Greece or Cyprus, because it has nothing to gain. If Turkey decides to attack, it risks a destructive future.

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    • LOL
    • May 6th, 2011

    I just LOLled so hard 😀

    • Bashir Adan
    • June 15th, 2012

    That is not an opinion but wishful thinking and reality is USA is only stronger than Turkey when it comes to military among all nato members(over).

    • g demeris
    • August 15th, 2012

    Turkey will stumble in the Greek mountains,ther tanks will be targets to the Greek bombs,Turkish ships will sunk all over Aegean by Greek subs planes and Greek ships .Greek missiles will destroy the Turkish air force .The Aegean fair will be the Turkish wet cemetery and fish will have a fiest.Armenia will attack Turkey Syria will attack Turkey .Think how quicly this military will srink to a big nothing.

    • g demeris
    • August 15th, 2012

    Turkey show to the world what ??? 1974 the attack on Cyprus with nobody shooting on them .
    inocent women and children gotte raped by Turkish so call soldiers .
    Shame on them ,ther on Allah will punish them and ther fammilies.
    Napalm bombs dropt every where in Cuprus burnning innicent humans.
    That’s the only way Turkey will winn .
    Never against the heroic Greek military.
    I can be writing for ever ,the truth is one and the Turks know it .
    If they want to play with the Greek fire will get burnt.

    • Ian Mcdowell
    • November 19th, 2012

    are you bloody serious or not high at the moment you write this article? looll 😀 “Greece has a powerful economy” ahaha :DD:D:DD:

    • First of all the artcle was posted in January 2009 and if you knew how much Greece is paying the bankers you might change your mind about their economy.
      In 1994 their debt was 90 billion euros since then they paid 576 to the banks and the debt went up to 360 billion, that’s Feb 2011 stats.
      I recommend you watch Greg Palast talk about Greece here

    • Major Thomas
    • April 22nd, 2013

    Greece won the very first allied war even when outnumbered 2 to 1 against by superior military hardware. It then went on to set a precedent for the rest of Europe to follow in Nazi defiance. Don’t confuse this civil and profoundly compassionate country as being pacifists when it comes to freedom or protecting their family.

    They also founded the west’s culture who would be horrified if anyone infringed on these peace loving people, although Cyprus was not reated like Kuwait due to Turkey’s geo-strategic importance to the middle East and Russia (in essence to harlot principle).

    Russia and Israel would also not allow it. That’s enough superpower to make one think that Turkey should reassess its constant violation of airspace and ridiculous land claims. Thankful war will never take place. Let Turkey saber rattle all they want, even with superior numbers and military hardware, it would be profound suicide if they did attacked to horrify the international community.

  1. Firstly, Turkey’s 82 Million plus population with an available standing manpower of over 12 million soldiers in no match for Greece. Secondly, Turkey makes it’s own Tanks, military missiles and is considered NATO’s second largest standing army. Apart from those facts, Turkey is a fighting nation and does not view Greece as potential threat in any way, which or form. Greece, for it’s population, is a relatively large area of land for is very small. Greece may at first put up a decent response by driving forward with its current held military inventory, but ultimately when Turkey get serious and start rolling out it pure might and passionate aggression accessing all of its fury and military capabilities, Greece will look very insignificant. I have served in Turkey’s highest military office and can tell you that Greece is wasting its time with a country like Turkey. It would do better to befriend Turkey, work closely with it and pick on a smaller nation. Also, the Eastern part of Turkey is NOT part of the CFE treaty, thus, anything Turkey wishes to plant there does not appear in any official reports, hence why Turkey’s population and military capabilities can not be accurately registered or accounted for. Plus, Russia is very close to Turkey due to the ex-Soviet Turkic nations, while the EU is not really a fighting nation of hte sort. As for Amaerica, let’s just say that Blond, Blue-eyed Ataturk was very close, almost hand picked by the illuminate!

  2. ALL – WAR is never going to be on the cards with these two Modern countries as they know, now, very well whom are the ones who would want them to ever go to war. Turks and Greeks are very similar people. They should really work as brothers hand in hand in a show of unity to the world, make plenty of money for their economies and entertain those tourists visiting their respective countries. The Website of a War Scenario should be taken down. Peace to all Greeks and Turks. Work together as brothers, neighbours, friends and families. God bless.

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